Modeling Retention and Graduation Patterns: Forecasting Cohort Survival Rates Among Iskolar ng Bayan Scholars

Abstract

This study aimed to model the retention and graduation patterns of Iskolar ng Bayan scholars by forecasting cohort survival rates using time series analysis. Drawing on data from 1986 to 2025, the study examined the historical and projected trends in second-year and third-year retention, as well as on-time graduation rates, to uncover critical patterns influencing student progression and completion. Employing ARIMA and exponential smoothing models within SPSS, the analysis revealed consistently high retention rates in both the second and third years, with a notable gradual increase over time. However, the findings indicated a temporary decline in on-time graduation rates during the early 2000s, followed by a modest recovery in recent years. Model fit statistics, including high R-squared values and low forecasting errors (MAPE and RMSE), validated the robustness of the models used. These results underscore the need for policy reinforcement and targeted academic interventions to bridge the gap between strong student retention and timely graduation. The study contributes valuable insights for higher education institutions and policymakers in enhancing student success and optimizing scholarship programs.